Bears vs Saints odds, line: 2019 NFL picks, best Week 7 predictions from model on 24-15 run
The Bears will try to rebound from a disappointing loss and get back into the middle of the NFL playoff picture when Chicago hosts the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Bears lost 24-21 to the Raiders in London to fall to 3-2 before their bye week, but likely will get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back from a shoulder injury. The Bears still have an elite defense, and they will try to halt Saints quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's four-game win streak in place of star Drew Brees (thumb). Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. at Soldier Field. Chicago is a four-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Saints odds after the line opened at 3.5, while the over-under for total points scored is 37.5, off two from the opener. Before you consider your Saints vs. Bears picks, you should listen to the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 7 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 24-15 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 86-58 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 6, it nailed the Patriots (-17) covering a large spread against the Giants and the Seahawks (+1) winning straight-up as underdogs against the Browns.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Saints vs. Bears 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows the Bears have been built on defense for decades, and this team is no different. In fact, Chicago has a plus-seven turnover differential and 17 sacks. Linebacker Khalil Mack leads the way with 4.5 sacks, while defensive end Nick Williams has four. Mack has been one of the league's best defenders since coming over from the Raiders before last season, and linebacker Danny Trevathan also provides leadership and has a team-high 45 tackles.
Wide receiver Allen Robinson had seven receptions for 97 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders, and he has been a bright spot on offense. Trubisky was off to a slow start before injuring his non-throwing shoulder, but he threw for 3,223 yards and 24 touchdowns in 14 starts last season. Plus, the Saints will be without star running back Alvin Kamara, who will sit with an ankle injury.
But just because Chicago has an elite defense doesn't mean it will cover the Bears vs. Saints spread on Sunday.
Bridgewater has stepped in and won four straight games after Brees had thumb surgery. He has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 1,089 yards and seven touchdowns. He has a big-time target in wide receiver Michael Thomas, who has 632 receiving yards and went off for 182 against the Bucs in Week 5.
New Orleans is 11th in the league in scoring defense, allowing an average of 20.3 points per game. The Saints have 18 sacks, led by Cameron Jordan with five, and Marcus Davenport and Trey Hendrickson (questionable) have three each. Running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is out, so the defense will be relied on even more than normal.
