Yankees vs Astros odds, line: 2019 ALCS Game 5 picks, best predictions from advanced model

The New York Yankees will look to stay alive in their best-of-seven 2019 ALCS against the Houston Astros on Friday night. The Yankees (103-59) will look to avoid their seventh straight postseason without reaching the World Series, while the Astros (107-55) look to cap off their best-ever regular season with a trip to the 2019 World Series. The game from Yankee Stadium in New York is slated to begin at 7:08 p.m. ET. The Yankees last reached the World Series in 2009, when they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies, 4-2. The Astros are favored at -142 on the money line, meaning a $142 wager would net $100, while the over-under for total runs scored is set at 7.5 in the latest Astros vs. Yankees odds. Before making any Yankees vs. Astros picks of your own, be sure to check out the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered the second full week of the 2019 MLB Playoffs up almost $1,000 for $100 players on top-rated MLB picks this season. The model was especially strong on top-rated money line picks this season, entering the week on a profitable 158-130 run. Anyone who has been following it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Yankees vs. Astros. We can tell you it's leaning over 7.5 runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The Astros will look to close out the series by sending right-hander Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) to the mound. Verlander was lights out in his last ALCS start, allowing just two runs on an Aaron Judge home run in 6 2/3 innings in a 3-2 Houston victory. In three playoff starts against the Yankees as an Astro, Verlander has struck out 28 batters and has an ERA of 1.19. In his last 10 starts, Verlander is 7-2 with 81 strikeouts, including a no-hitter Sept. 1 at Toronto.

Second baseman Jose Altuve (.353) continues to torch Yankees pitching and is 6-for-17 with a homer in the series. During the regular season, Altuve pounded New York to the tune of a .387 batting average, .935 slugging percentage and 1.347 OPS by going 12-for-31 with two doubles, five homers and six RBIs. He also scored eight runs and walked twice.

But just because Houston is on the verge of reaching another World Series, does not mean it is the best value on the Yankees vs. Astros money line.

New York has had 27 straight winning seasons and qualified for the postseason 21 times since 1993. Second-year manager Aaron Boone has compiled a 209-127 record, including 6-6 in the playoffs. The Yankees have had no trouble putting up runs this season, scoring 943 times, tops in MLB and the most since 2007, when they plated 968.

Offensively, the Yankees will look to second baseman Gleyber Torres (.294) to stay hot. He had a six-game postseason hitting streak snapped on Thursday, but is 10-for-29 with three doubles, three homers and 10 RBIs in the playoffs. He hit two homers and drove in five runs against the Astros during the regular season.